Water pollution poses a foremost threat to crop productivity by degrading soil health. The latest study aimed to determine the impact of water quality and soil fertility on yields of chief cereal crops. Proposed data in corn, wheat, and soybeans used in Bayesian regression modeling helped determine crop-specific sensitivities to variations in water pollution and soil nutrients. The model estimates revealed that high water pollution levels reduced the average corn yields by 4.305 t ha^-1, wheat by 0.522 t ha^-1, and soybeans by 0.609 t ha^-1 compared with the water with low pollution. In contrast, the well-fertile soil improved corn productivity by 1.306 t ha^-1 and wheat and soybean yields by 0.52–0.61 t ha^-1 versus medium fertility. The results highlighted the critical need for policies to control water pollution while improving soil quality to sustain crop yields. These policies include Water Quality Standards, Pollution Prevention Plans, Wastewater Treatment Regulations, Stormwater Management Regulations, and Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs). Policies that lower surface and irrigation water contamination and enhance soil health require wider adoption to offset projected yield declines, especially given an expanding food demand.

Keywords: Water pollution, soil fertility and health, crop production, corn, wheat, and soybean yields

Key findings: The findings gave significant implications for agricultural practices and policymaking. The results emphasized the urgent need to launch policies and practices to control water pollution and improve soil quality to sustain crop yields, particularly in the face of an expanding global food demand. The quantitative evidence provided by the regression models emphasized specific yield losses associated with water pollution and the benefits of healthy soil in ensuring sustainable crop production.