Contemporary agriculture is a fertile ground for the effective use of economic and mathematical models, which can be evaluated to unwind several problems with characteristic optimization features: multiple solution opportunities and freedom of choice, limited production resources, and efficiency valuation. The presented study aims to develop a model of optimal crop production structure under the existing weather risks in the agricultural management system. The article reviews the basic theoretical concepts in optimizing the production structure of agricultural enterprises, examines the specific features of crop production, proves the influence of weather and climate conditions on forming the production structure, demonstrates the use of correlation and regression analysis for trend modeling and forecasting of crop yields, and offers suggestions for determining the optimal production structure. The study concludes that multivariate forecasting helps optimize management in economic organizations and ensure their development under the variability of natural conditions. Natural and climatic conditions significantly impact the development of production structures in agricultural enterprises, along with nature acting as an innate participant in the game.
Agricultural enterprise, economic and mathematical models, natural conditions, agricultural production structure, optimization model, weather risks
The proposed mathematical model helps maximize the net profit and predicts the maximum possible profit gain under different production structures depending on the existing weather conditions and risks. The presented model enables agricultural enterprise management to build business strategies based on profit maximization. The said model also provides a better justification of the managerial decision-making process for optimal planning to find the reserves to improve agricultural enterprises‘ production efficiency and marketing activities in times of crisis and dynamic changes in the external environment.